Below was the posting prior to Game 7 of the Cletics vs. Orlando Magic series. You can read about how the fallacy of teamwork crept in to TNT's pre-game analysis.
The evidence showed that, as expected, the bench was not the deciding factor and that the stars' play determined the outcome.
Boston's Paul Pierce -- the Most Valuable Player of last year's NBA Finals -- did not play like a star. He made only 4 of 13 field goal attempts and 7 of 10 free throws. He went almost an entire half of basketball (from early 2nd quarter to early 4th quarter) without a field goal.
So, as suggested here and based on evidence, deciding Game 7s are impacted by the play of the stars much more than that of the bench. Sure, Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller will say that Orlando's reserves outscored Boston's, 25-12. That wasn't the deciding factor. Paul Pierce's sub-par play doomed Boston.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
The Fallacy of Teamwork for Magic vs. Celtics Game 7
Prior to tonight's NBA playoff Game 7 between the Boston Celtics and the Orlando Magic, two commentators who should know better fell for the fallacy of teamwork.
On TNT's pre-game show, former NBA champ Kenny Smith was asked what player was going to be the "key" to the game. He didn't name one. Instead, he said "the bench" -- the reserves -- would be most important.
That was followed early in the game by a comment by game analyst Reggie Miller, who said the same thing. "You know what you're going to get from your stars," said the former NBA All-Star. The deciding factor, he said, was going to be the "play of the reserves."
This is nonsense! This is Game 7, the deciding game of the series. This is precisely the time when the stars have to play like stars. This is when the game's greats validate their reputations, to say nothing of their salaries. As we've written here before, the role players must be counted on to contribute to the best of their abilities. But key to the game? Winning and losing? That's going to rest on the shoulders of the best players. The coaches know it and the players know it. Too bad the analysts don't know it, because the viewers think they know what they're talking about.
Look at it this way. When Celtics coach Doc Rivers was preparing for tonight's game, do you think he spent more time figuring out how to defend Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, or Mikeal Pietrus and Courtney Lee? Did Magic coach Stan Van Gundy lose sleep worring about Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, or Brian Scalabrine and Eddie House?
I'll bet my own Winston Wolf roll that either coach would be MUCH happier to take their chances with the other team's reserves than have to worry about showing down the big guns. This isn't to say that one of the team's substitutes won't have a big game and wind up being a big factor in the result. But that won't likely happen in a vacuum. For a reserve to get a lot of playing time and make a big contribution, something would have to be amiss with one of the stars. A reserve can be one of the keys to the game...if one of the stars doesn't perform like a star.
Now let's see what happens...
On TNT's pre-game show, former NBA champ Kenny Smith was asked what player was going to be the "key" to the game. He didn't name one. Instead, he said "the bench" -- the reserves -- would be most important.
That was followed early in the game by a comment by game analyst Reggie Miller, who said the same thing. "You know what you're going to get from your stars," said the former NBA All-Star. The deciding factor, he said, was going to be the "play of the reserves."
This is nonsense! This is Game 7, the deciding game of the series. This is precisely the time when the stars have to play like stars. This is when the game's greats validate their reputations, to say nothing of their salaries. As we've written here before, the role players must be counted on to contribute to the best of their abilities. But key to the game? Winning and losing? That's going to rest on the shoulders of the best players. The coaches know it and the players know it. Too bad the analysts don't know it, because the viewers think they know what they're talking about.
Look at it this way. When Celtics coach Doc Rivers was preparing for tonight's game, do you think he spent more time figuring out how to defend Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, or Mikeal Pietrus and Courtney Lee? Did Magic coach Stan Van Gundy lose sleep worring about Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, or Brian Scalabrine and Eddie House?
I'll bet my own Winston Wolf roll that either coach would be MUCH happier to take their chances with the other team's reserves than have to worry about showing down the big guns. This isn't to say that one of the team's substitutes won't have a big game and wind up being a big factor in the result. But that won't likely happen in a vacuum. For a reserve to get a lot of playing time and make a big contribution, something would have to be amiss with one of the stars. A reserve can be one of the keys to the game...if one of the stars doesn't perform like a star.
Now let's see what happens...
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